RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

[maglor]

First questions for the cookies

(1) Who is the character with most votes?

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest difference in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )

--------------------------------

Now the stuff that matters bit more.

I have heard many wild ideas about how today's results should be analyzed, interpreted, or "accredited" . There seems to be great danger of many people trying to make up "explanations" to suit whatever agenda they might have, AFTER seeing the results. In order to head off potentials for abuse and misinformation, I like to ask all of you to post and discuss how you should analyze, interpret , or accept the results BEFORE seeing the results themselves. Please post (1) what you expect the results to be like (2) tell us a possible result and then the meaning of such result (3) How you should accept the results (4) What the results does NOT mean (5) How the results should alter our expectations (6) Given a possible result scenario, what kind of actions or changes may be advisable if such scenario occurs , (7) Any affirmation or critique of others reasoning, (8) Scream blindly how moe someone is and make a total fool out of yourself, shaming all the supporters of your favorite characters to the degree that you might be banned and your posts be erased (9) etc.

Edit - view at http://2013.internationalsaimoe.com/sta ... xhibition/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and choose to display the Bonus round

[maglor]

I am not permitted to divulge any information directly related to the question I have posted before the results are made known public. Therefore, I will repost something I posted way before the match started. I would really like all of you to critique any part of my reasoning here, and/or offer your own take into the situation

Original post1 : viewtopic.php?f=35&t=4484&start=20#p236745" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(1) As many of you said, 72 way split is too unpredictable. You also won't get any info on how many people chose one character over another by very slim margin. It is entirely possible that someone who ends up with less than 0.1% of the vote to actually be a top 8 character for more than 10% of the voter. Therefore, please try not to overemphasize the result nor give it too much value in any analysis
(2) Many of the previous data suggest that the result is likely to be distributed in form that resembles Geometric Distribution or Beta-binomial distribution . Assuming we can get near 5000(+- 1000 ) voters , I think it is likely that the 1st place finisher will manage to get near 12% = 600 votes, give or take about 200 votes. The uncertainty is large since we lack data on doing something on this large a scale. The difference between 1st and 2nd place finisher will likely be around 30 votes, give or take about 10 votes. I expect the last place finisher to get near 0.2% of the votes thus somewhere near 10 (+- 4 ) votes as well.
(3) Above number predictions are very frail. If someone campaigns hard for a character, it is plausible for them to find about 100 additional votes given the amount of time we have from now to the event. Just 100 votes by itself may give a character a top 20 finish. Also, that 100 votes should be slightly more than the difference I expect between 1st and 5th place character. Therefore, I think it is bit foolish to predict who will finish first. In addition, if you say "***" will finish last, there exist very good chance that your statement might move someone to get 5 or more votes for "***" . Since I am expecting the difference between 71st and 72nd to be near 1 ( +- 1 ) , there exist a chance that claim of "***" finishing last may give her 3 place boost. In other word, any thing you say about any character may change the finish rank for that character, especially for the lower ranked characters.

Original Post 2 : viewtopic.php?f=35&t=4484&start=40#p236822" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Series with more than 1 lead characters like K-on! and Haganai is going be to heavily disadvantaged at this.

Yup. So that will make all of our Tiara holders very vulnerable.

except mikoto and hina... so really only 2 tiara holders out of 4 since fate isnt eligible

Well, I forgot that Hinagiku no longer has the support from Maria, Nagi, and others. ( Gasp! Does this mean Hinagiku might win this?! ) Mikoto does have Last Order with her, but they have the same DNA.... Akiyama Mio, Kanade, and Kuroneko will have to worry about same series split, as their series companions have significantly different character traits, thus it is likely that many would prefer their series companions over them.

[LOveLive!]

1) Kuroyukihime

2) Akemi Homura

3) 248

4) 52

5) 126

[Momo]

(1) what you expect the results to be like: terrible but less terrible than normal ISML results
(2) tell us a possible result and then the meaning of such result : people will be butthurt, meaning everyone should spank maglor
(3) How you should accept the results: with grace and dignity, maglor, grace and dignity.
(4) What the results does NOT mean: that anyone will ever stop blaming poor, poor moeglor
(5) How the results should alter our expectations: Numph4Tiara2014
(6) Given a possible result scenario, what kind of actions or changes may be advisable if such scenario occurs: spanking of maglor. In maglor's case, finding alternative maglors to spank.
(7) Any affirmation or critique of others reasoning: let me (8)Scream blindly how moe someone is and make a total fool out of yourself, shaming all the supporters of your favorite characters to the degree that you might be banned and your posts be erased.

[maglor]

I am posting this because something like this can't show up with our current world map scheme.

Someone asked about how the things are in Russia. According to my preliminary tally ( NOTE : A Crucial Vote Checking process will be done by someone other than I, thus results may change from what I say here ) Makise Kurisu and Holo are tied for the 1st in Russia. Nagato Yuki and Senjogahara Hitagi are tied for 3rd. Misaka Mikoto is very close 5th. Again, all these may change upon further review.

[RockmanXt]

(1) Tachibana Kanade

(2) Akemi Homura

(3) 10

(4) 100

(5) 100


Hope for Kurisu for higher rank, she should be at Division Final at least, but under the cut line for 2 years.

Well, from maglor previous post, at lease Russian understand.

[Bastion]

I'm just happy that, based on the votes posted here, Hina-tan won't be getting last.
I doubt there'll be anyone with 0 votes, they're in the tournament for a reason, someone must like them.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of complaining that character 'x' didn't get a chance because she's not in the battle, personally I'm kinda annoyed at Nagi being cast out of this.

[Midnight-Jasper]

(1) Who is the character with most votes?
Mikoto

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest different in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?
HOLOOOOOOOOO

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )
20

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )
12

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )
84


(1) what you expect the results to be like
Better than usual ISML!

(2) tell us a possible result and then the meaning of such result
Hitagi does well. The world is a horrible, worthless place.

(3) How you should accept the results
THANKS FOR RUINING MY NEW YEAR MAGLOR I HATE YOU *sits in bath with electrical appliance*

(4) What the results does NOT mean
That Holo is going to get back in ISML 2014.

(5) How the results should alter our expectations
ISML voterbase is even crappier than previously imagined.

(6) Given a possible result scenario, what kind of actions or changes may be advisable if such scenario occurs.
Ban ISP of those who vote for, say, Hitagi. Then more singing from moeglor yay <333

(7) Any affirmation or critique of others reasoning:
Moeglor's points would be more persuasive if delivered in song form.

(8) Scream blindly how moe someone is and make a total fool out of yourself, shaming all the supporters of your favorite characters to the degree that you might be banned and your posts be erased
kill crab kill crab

[Yakuman]

(1) Misaka Mikoto
(2) Takanashi Touka
(3) 50
(4) 20
(5) 115

[JLoable91]

(1) Who is the character with most votes?
Tachibana Kanade

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest different in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?
Akemi Homura

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )
18

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )
14

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )
107

[HasbeenaHibiki]

(1) Who is the character with most votes?
Tachibana Kanade

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest different in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?
Akemi Homura

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )
100

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )
5

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )
100

[Jiharo]

(1) Who is the character with most votes?

Gokou Ruri

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest different in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?

Don't know. No time to calculate so I'm just gonna anyhow throw a name in(or more like follow the crowd): Akemi Homura

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )

67

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )

25

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )

125

[CureRainbow]

1.) Tachibana Kanade
2.) Akemi Homura
3.) 30
4.) 20
5.) 110

...IlikeMomo'sandEmjay'sanswersthebestthough*shot*

[Zefyris]

ho is the character with most votes?
Tachibana Kanade

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest different in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?
Holo

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )
90

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )
9

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )
78

[10ZHAbin]

I hope that nobody got 0 vote？

[Midnight-Jasper]

I hope the clannad girls will do rather well out of this.

[kanohistorm]

(1) Misaka Mikoto

(2) Yui (SAO)

(3) 319

(4) 73

(5) 210

[Asuna]

Hoping Asuna will do well

(1) Misaka Mikoto
(2) I'll go with majority: Akemi Homura
(3) 50
(4) 15
(5) 100

[chaosprophet]

Maglor asked me to post the Combined 2013 ISML Ranks to help thinking about the quiz question 2:

Combined 2013 ISML RankShow

1 - Gokō Ruri (Kuroneko)
2 - Tachibana Kanade
3 - Eucliwood Hellscythe
4 - Misaka Mikoto
5 - Shiina Mashiro
6 - Aragaki Ayase
7 - Yūki Asuna
8 - Nakano Azusa
9 - Takanashi Rikka
10 - Kuroyukihime
11 - Aisaka Taiga
12 - Hasegawa Kobato
13 - Aoyama Nanami
14 - Kōsaka Kirino
15 - Yuzuriha Inori
16 - Kashiwazaki Sena
17 - Shana
18 - Akiyama Mio
19 - Chitanda Eru
20 - Nibutani Shinka
21 - Yui-nyan
22 - Nakamura Yuri
23 - Nyarlathotep
24 - Nagato Yuki
25 - Yui
26 - Saber
27 - Suzumiya Haruhi
28 - Momo Belia Deviluke
29 - Hirasawa Yui
30 - Kanzaki H. Aria
31 - Mikazuki Yozora
32 - Takanashi Tōka
33 - Makise Kurisu
34 - Konjiki no Yami
35 - Last Order
36 - Yūki Mikan
37 - Honma Meiko
38 - Natsume Rin
39 - Katsura Hinagiku
40 - Senjōgahara Hitagi
41 - Shirakiin Ririchiyo
42 - Tōwa Erio
43 - Louise Vallière
44 - Kirigaya Suguha
45 - Sengoku Nadeko
46 - Ayano Keiko (Silica)
47 - Kirishima Shōko
48 - Oshino Shinobu
49 - Victorique de Blois
50 - Sakagami Tomoyo
51 - Sanka Rea
52 - Kuroi Mato
53 - Illyasviel von Einzbern
54 - Furukawa Nagisa
55 - Nōmi Kudryavka
56 - Roromiya Karuta
57 - Tōsaka Rin
58 - Charlotte Dunois
59 - Konoe Subaru
60 - Kurasaki Fūko (Sky Raker)
61 - Akemi Homura
62 - Nymph
63 - Kotegawa Yui
64 - Iwasawa Masami
65 - Fujibayashi Kyō
66 - C.C.
67 - Misaki Mei
68 - Holo
69 - Araragi Karen
70 - Izumi Konata
71 - Araragi Tsukihi
72 - Hirasawa Ui

[Sphire]

(1) Who is the character with most votes?
Tachibana Kanade (she'll be dominating for a while longer)

(2) Right now, combined 2013 ISML rank is decided first by Postseason Phase II result, then Pts value among 16 characters that entered the postseason but didn't make it to Phase II, and then Pts values for the 20 * 2 = 40 others. Which character has the greatest different in Combined 2013 ISML Rank and Rank of finish for today?
Kuroyukihime. Unfortunately.

(3) What is the vote difference between 2nd place finisher and the 3rd? ( You have to be within 8 votes to win a cookie here )
30

(4) How many votes does the 70th place finisher have? ( You have to be within 5 votes to win a cookie here )
5

(5) What is the median number for the votes received? ( You have to be within 7 votes to win a cookie here )
90