RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Discussions about the exhibition period, including the seasonal tournament, goes here.
User avatar
LOveLive!
[HUMAN SEQUENCER]
[HUMAN SEQUENCER]
Posts: 3906
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Dante, Traveler of the Burning Abyss
Melon Pan: 306
Wish: To do IIDX well
Location: KONMAI

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by LOveLive! » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:50 pm

Jiharo wrote:
LOveLive! wrote: Unlike AST and KBM, which have 1~2 matches a day, ISML has a variety of matches at once.
I don't know about KBM but I remembered AST having more than 2 matches a day. I participated in AST till the end of Round 2.
Same as KBM till the end of Round 96. But it's true AST or KBM spends most time on '1~2 matches per day'.
Jiharo
Void mage
Void mage
Posts: 1481
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:23 pm
Melon Pan: 50

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Jiharo » Wed Jan 01, 2014 2:33 pm

LOveLive! wrote:
Jiharo wrote:
LOveLive! wrote: Unlike AST and KBM, which have 1~2 matches a day, ISML has a variety of matches at once.
I don't know about KBM but I remembered AST having more than 2 matches a day. I participated in AST till the end of Round 2.
Same as KBM till the end of Round 96. But it's true AST or KBM spends most time on '1~2 matches per day'.
Not last year though. AST have 3-4 matches per day, not the 1-2 matches as you say.
User avatar
Momento10
Electromaster
Electromaster
Posts: 6049
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 1:18 am
Badges:
ImageImageImageImage
Worships: Setsumi Sakura
Melon Pan: 88
2018 Female Favorite: Nishimiya Shōko
2018 Male Favorite: Sagara Sōsuke
2017 Female Favorite: Megumin
2017 Male Favorite: Zen Wistalia
Wish: ISML - A new face for the champion.
KBM - to revive
AST - to encourage international participation
IRL - My definition of peace and tranquility.

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Momento10 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 5:47 pm

The point of the post is that ISML has a much larger selection pool than AST or KBM, thus is more inclined to have "combo votes" than the other two tournaments. Yes, you can argue there is group voting involved in both tournaments (same series/seiyuu in different blocks, etc.) but it is not as consistent as ISML, where we see the same characters fighting together at the same time throughout RS once the RS line-up is set.
Image
Jiharo
Void mage
Void mage
Posts: 1481
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:23 pm
Melon Pan: 50

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Jiharo » Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:38 am

Momento10 wrote:The point of the post is that ISML has a much larger selection pool than AST or KBM, thus is more inclined to have "combo votes" than the other two tournaments. Yes, you can argue there is group voting involved in both tournaments (same series/seiyuu in different blocks, etc.) but it is not as consistent as ISML, where we see the same characters fighting together at the same time throughout RS once the RS line-up is set.
Nah. Group voting may not be heavy in AST but series voting is far more heavy in AST than ISML. The combo votes comes in for series voting. It was very apparent last year AST(till the admins decides to anyhow throw in a rule in round 3 that made me quit voting). I don't know how much you follow AST but I do so till Round 3. I've stalked 2ch and the likes and no matter group voting or series voting, combo voting is apparent in both places. Only difference is how much power each faction holds. AST dominating factions holds more than 40% power whereas ISML factions hold significantly lesser due to the very huge voter base.
User avatar
LOveLive!
[HUMAN SEQUENCER]
[HUMAN SEQUENCER]
Posts: 3906
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Dante, Traveler of the Burning Abyss
Melon Pan: 306
Wish: To do IIDX well
Location: KONMAI

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by LOveLive! » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:55 pm

Jiharo wrote:
Momento10 wrote:The point of the post is that ISML has a much larger selection pool than AST or KBM, thus is more inclined to have "combo votes" than the other two tournaments. Yes, you can argue there is group voting involved in both tournaments (same series/seiyuu in different blocks, etc.) but it is not as consistent as ISML, where we see the same characters fighting together at the same time throughout RS once the RS line-up is set.
Nah. Group voting may not be heavy in AST but series voting is far more heavy in AST than ISML. The combo votes comes in for series voting. It was very apparent last year AST(till the admins decides to anyhow throw in a rule in round 3 that made me quit voting). I don't know how much you follow AST but I do so till Round 3. I've stalked 2ch and the likes and no matter group voting or series voting, combo voting is apparent in both places. Only difference is how much power each faction holds. AST dominating factions holds more than 40% power whereas ISML factions hold significantly lesser due to the very huge voter base.
That is not 'combo voting'. 'Combo voting' is vaild when two or more contestans of same series(or etc.) are voted at the same time.(Of course, except intra-series match)

The influence of combo voting is different from general voting. For example,

A(a char of a dominant faction) vs B(a char of other faction)

C(a char of the same faction with B) vs D(a char of a different faction from A, B, and C)

If there is combo voting among B and C, A may have more difficulty defeating B than normal case. As combo voting increases, series domination usually decreases. This is why there has barely happened series domination in ISML.
Jiharo
Void mage
Void mage
Posts: 1481
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:23 pm
Melon Pan: 50

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Jiharo » Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:00 pm

LOveLive! wrote:
Jiharo wrote:
Momento10 wrote:The point of the post is that ISML has a much larger selection pool than AST or KBM, thus is more inclined to have "combo votes" than the other two tournaments. Yes, you can argue there is group voting involved in both tournaments (same series/seiyuu in different blocks, etc.) but it is not as consistent as ISML, where we see the same characters fighting together at the same time throughout RS once the RS line-up is set.
Nah. Group voting may not be heavy in AST but series voting is far more heavy in AST than ISML. The combo votes comes in for series voting. It was very apparent last year AST(till the admins decides to anyhow throw in a rule in round 3 that made me quit voting). I don't know how much you follow AST but I do so till Round 3. I've stalked 2ch and the likes and no matter group voting or series voting, combo voting is apparent in both places. Only difference is how much power each faction holds. AST dominating factions holds more than 40% power whereas ISML factions hold significantly lesser due to the very huge voter base.
That is not 'combo voting'. 'Combo voting' is vaild when two or more contestans of same series(or etc.) are voted at the same time.(Of course, except intra-series match)

The influence of combo voting is different from general voting. For example,

A(a char of a dominant faction) vs B(a char of other faction)

C(a char of the same faction with B) vs D(a char of a different faction from A, B, and C)

If there is combo voting among B and C, A may have more difficulty defeating B than normal case. As combo voting increases, series domination usually decreases. This is why there has barely happened series domination in ISML.
I know about combo voting and I was talking about it. -_-

Last year AST as an example was very apparent already. We have RKB, MadoMagi, Saki etc combo voting.

What I'm saying it as much as you'd like to claim there isn't much combo voting, it still exist pretty much and what I am bringing out is the effects of it. ISML dominating faction hold less than 40% power due to the large voter base whereas in AST, combo voting presence are felt more due to the sheer power of the dominating faction paired with the small voter base. You seem to claim that combo voting presence is felt more in ISML than AST but I'd like to point out otherwise. The presence and effect of combo voting is felt more in AST than ISML.
User avatar
LOveLive!
[HUMAN SEQUENCER]
[HUMAN SEQUENCER]
Posts: 3906
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Dante, Traveler of the Burning Abyss
Melon Pan: 306
Wish: To do IIDX well
Location: KONMAI

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by LOveLive! » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:11 pm

Jiharo wrote: I know about combo voting and I was talking about it. -_-

Last year AST as an example was very apparent already. We have RKB, MadoMagi, Saki etc combo voting.

What I'm saying it as much as you'd like to claim there isn't much combo voting, it still exist pretty much and what I am bringing out is the effects of it. ISML dominating faction hold less than 40% power due to the large voter base whereas in AST, combo voting presence are felt more due to the sheer power of the dominating faction paired with the small voter base. You seem to claim that combo voting presence is felt more in ISML than AST but I'd like to point out otherwise. The presence and effect of combo voting is felt more in AST than ISML.
That is because matches are few per day. The effect of combo voting in AST is just looks bigger than ISML because only one or two faction can do it. In general, those who do series voting have no concern in the matches where contestants of their series do not take part. So, only 2 or 3 factions are involved, and weaker factions are crashed by a strong faction shiftlessly. Besides, there does not exist combo voting above quarterfinals anymore. In this circumstance, if a faction is too strong, this is prone to instantly leads to domination.

On the contrary, with more matches per day, more contestants, more factions can take part at the same time, and several factions can bump into each other. However strong a faction is, the faction can be sunk by other factions' joint attack.(However, these need 'the minimum number of contestants one has to vote'.)
Jiharo
Void mage
Void mage
Posts: 1481
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:23 pm
Melon Pan: 50

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Jiharo » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:35 pm

LOveLive! wrote:
Jiharo wrote: I know about combo voting and I was talking about it. -_-

Last year AST as an example was very apparent already. We have RKB, MadoMagi, Saki etc combo voting.

What I'm saying it as much as you'd like to claim there isn't much combo voting, it still exist pretty much and what I am bringing out is the effects of it. ISML dominating faction hold less than 40% power due to the large voter base whereas in AST, combo voting presence are felt more due to the sheer power of the dominating faction paired with the small voter base. You seem to claim that combo voting presence is felt more in ISML than AST but I'd like to point out otherwise. The presence and effect of combo voting is felt more in AST than ISML.
That is because matches are few per day. The effect of combo voting in AST is just looks bigger than ISML because only one or two faction can do it. In general, those who do series voting have no concern in the matches where contestants of their series do not take part. So, only 2 or 3 factions are involved, and weaker factions are crashed by a strong faction shiftlessly. Besides, there does not exist combo voting above quarterfinals anymore. In this circumstance, if a faction is too strong, this is prone to instantly leads to domination.

On the contrary, with more matches per day, more contestants, more factions can take part at the same time, and several factions can bump into each other. However strong a faction is, the faction can be sunk by other factions' joint attack.(However, these need 'the minimum number of contestants one has to vote'.)
Doesn't look bigger only, it IS bigger cos of the low voter base there. You can have many factions competing with one another but if you have a huge pool of neutral voter base, it's gonna throw your combo voting off unless you can do what the Rozen Meister does.

But that doesn't make combo voting diminish, the fact that it thrives in the early rounds show how much more impact it have in the whole tourney, rather than a one day off result.
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8694
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Archer
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
2017 Female Favorite: Tomori Nao
2017 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by maglor » Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:08 am

Anyone wants to try explaining the following graph?

I will answer any questions to best of my ability, but would like you to first think about what this graph may mean.

Before anyone lets some accusations fly, take a look at the following article as well : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The trendline equation is 383.11*e^(-0.044*X), where X = Grand Finale Finish Rank.
Attachments
adjustGrandFin.jpg
adjustGrandFin.jpg (51.64 KiB) Viewed 2554 times
Image
User avatar
Momento10
Electromaster
Electromaster
Posts: 6049
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 1:18 am
Badges:
ImageImageImageImage
Worships: Setsumi Sakura
Melon Pan: 88
2018 Female Favorite: Nishimiya Shōko
2018 Male Favorite: Sagara Sōsuke
2017 Female Favorite: Megumin
2017 Male Favorite: Zen Wistalia
Wish: ISML - A new face for the champion.
KBM - to revive
AST - to encourage international participation
IRL - My definition of peace and tranquility.

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Momento10 » Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:17 pm

The black line represents the norm of what should be the expected outcome of a match like this given the data represented by all the characters votes. The fact that Mikoto, Kanade, and Shana far exceed this normal line proves how popular they are in an individual standpoint. This essentially proves that for regular season to make sense under this set of data, a slew of factors have to be in effect to make RS what it is today. The most prominent case is Shana, who, despite her initial popularity, is not a participant in PS2. This also reveals that girls like Mikoto, Kanade, and Shana have a significant head-start over everyone else during the voting process. Under this set of data, their loss to the remainder 69 girls would have to be through outside means (i.e. ways to convince people to vote for a certain character who are not their initial favorite, i.e. same series, same seiyuu, haven't watched/read that series yet, etc.).This also proves that these three characters should have been the most popular of all and represent the Top 3 of this year, but again, this is not true. This would have been true in ISML 2011, when Mikoto is 1st, Shana is 2nd, and Kanade is 3rd.
Image
User avatar
maglor
~Fukou da~
~Fukou da~
Posts: 8694
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:57 pm
Badges:
ImageImage
Worships: Abriel Nei Debrusc Borl Paryun Lafiel
Melon Pan: 75
2019 Female Favorite: Sakurajima Mai
2019 Male Favorite: Archer
2018 Female Favorite: Chtholly Nota Seniorious
2018 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
2017 Female Favorite: Tomori Nao
2017 Male Favorite: Yang Wenli
Wish: More people being open to alternatives and compromises.

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by maglor » Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:31 am

Momento10 wrote:The black line represents the norm of what should be the expected outcome of a match like this given the data represented by all the characters votes. The fact that Mikoto, Kanade, and Shana far exceed this normal line proves how popular they are in an individual standpoint. This essentially proves that for regular season to make sense under this set of data, a slew of factors have to be in effect to make RS what it is today. The most prominent case is Shana, who, despite her initial popularity, is not a participant in PS2. This also reveals that girls like Mikoto, Kanade, and Shana have a significant head-start over everyone else during the voting process. Under this set of data, their loss to the remainder 69 girls would have to be through outside means (i.e. ways to convince people to vote for a certain character who are not their initial favorite, i.e. same series, same seiyuu, haven't watched/read that series yet, etc.).This also proves that these three characters should have been the most popular of all and represent the Top 3 of this year, but again, this is not true. This would have been true in ISML 2011, when Mikoto is 1st, Shana is 2nd, and Kanade is 3rd.

Questions

1. What about 2nd or 3rd choice effect when we think about more general situations?
2. How should we explain Homura ?
3. How should we explain girls who did much worse here compared to their 2013 regular season record?
Image
User avatar
Darth Blitzer
Space pirate
Space pirate
Posts: 386
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:36 am
Worships: KyoAni Empire
Melon Pan: 50
Wish: Patrolling the Ohio wasteland almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter.
Location: People's Republic of Ohiostan

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Darth Blitzer » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:54 am

Momento10 wrote: I find it amazing that Shana still has a decent core voting population in comparison to the rest. Having a similar core group with Kanade, of which both can be argued to have votes stripped off from seiyuu and same anime, you'd think that both characters should be equally matched against each other if they went 1v1. The fact that it is slightly lopsided shows how dominant the HanaKana/Angel Beats! faction is in their support campaign more so than factions Shana can benefit from, namely KugiRie.
Would you think that Shana would be equally matched in a 1v1? Imagine we have random ISML voter 1532. This voter is not a core fan of AB! or Kanade, but has her ranked about #14th amongst his/her most moe characters. On the other hand, the voter has Shana ranked #27th. This voter wouldn't really be a series or faction voter, Shana may not even really be all that disliked by the voter, but in a 1v1 match they're probably going to vote for Kanade over Shana

This is always been the strength that Kanade has had over Shana, in so far that she doesn't really need to have a core voter base that vastly exceeds her opponents. She may not be 1-3 on a lot of people's lists, but it appears that a lot of voters don't put her on the bottom of their rankings, compared to someone like Shana who always has to overcome much larger hurdles in a straight 1v1.
ETERNAL LURKER who rarely posts now sometimes posts, maybe
Politics, Religion, and Moé
"I remember when ISML was good"
"ISML has never been good"
Image
User avatar
Momento10
Electromaster
Electromaster
Posts: 6049
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 1:18 am
Badges:
ImageImageImageImage
Worships: Setsumi Sakura
Melon Pan: 88
2018 Female Favorite: Nishimiya Shōko
2018 Male Favorite: Sagara Sōsuke
2017 Female Favorite: Megumin
2017 Male Favorite: Zen Wistalia
Wish: ISML - A new face for the champion.
KBM - to revive
AST - to encourage international participation
IRL - My definition of peace and tranquility.

Re: RESULTS: 2013 Grand Finale

Post by Momento10 » Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:53 am

!. I am going to assume you mean what happens if we give voters two or three choices instead of one. In that case, I think those from inter-series would get a slight boost, although I do not believe not by much, since I still think the Top 10 or so people will relatively stay the same while the middle to lower end of the spectrum will chance, particularly those with two representatives as opposed to three of more. The would also be an even larger divide over the Top 2 of any series over the 3rd and below, leaving the bottom fodder with poor represented single representation and 3rd and lower same-series characters. I still think Mikoto will be on top, but the gap between Kanade and her maybe slightly closer. There's also a relatively good chance that Kuroneko would catch up to Shana, under the assumption that the majority of @ voters are Kanade-kuroneko combinations. Maybe Shana-Taiga combination would keep Shana third. The most prominent person to benefit from this is Last Order.

2. Girls like Homura, Kurisu, Victorique, C.C., and Holo suffer "High floor, low ceiling" syndrome. They have a strong core vote base because their are uniquely individual characters representing their series, but they have nothing more to add on to this initial start. Because they are the only ones from their series, they need to find other means to grab possible abstained votes. A 2rd (maybe 3rd) have a higher chance of beating these characters because they have a 1st that they can get their votes from as well as 3rd, 4th, etc. to add on to their initial vote start. So, why are they not doing as well as someone like Shana, who is just as old as C.C. and Holo, or Eucliwood, who is just as new as Kurisu, Victorique, and Homura? I don't know. Maybe it has to do with the ever growing fanbase who has the attention span of one year's worth of anime material up to last winter. Maybe Kuuderes are the most popular moe in the ISML community. Or maybe it just so happens that, despite the large fanbase of Steins Gate and Madoka Magica, they don't do moe contests or do not know that ISML exist, and those who do know are not doing a good job at persuading more of them to come and support their favorite character because they are not interested in it.

3. The majority of the girls who did much worse than their initial standing come form 2nd and under girls of the same series, which makes sense, given that the initial vote of those girls would be their 1st place counterpart. If there were two votes instead of 1, they might do slightly better, especially the 2nd representative, but they would not be that much closer compared to these statistics.

@Darth Blitzer: Sure, we can argue that, and I do understand that. Kanade's type of more has a more neutral fanbase in comparison to Shana's type of more, which is more bipolar. But I can easily argue that ISMl voter 1532 has just as much power to abstain and not vote at all at that particular match. While abstaining might seem like it does nothing to the match, it is the quite the opposite. Because this voter does not choose to side with anyone, this is the perfect opportunity to persuade that voter to side with either or, and if the Shana fanbase happen to convince that voter enough to vote for Shana, that voter has a higher chance choosing Shana over Kanade, given the rankings you have provided for this voter. My main point in that paragraph is I am just amazed that there are about as many core people supporting Shana as there is Kanade, which I did not expect given how Shana has done in this year's RS comparatively to Kanade's performance, and there are a variety of factors to make what should have been a close match tilted towards Kanade, of which you have pointed out in your post.
Image
Locked