Don't want to get into a large debate like I usually do, so I'll make some quick points...rather than my usual rants.
Team Rocket Elite wrote:Either they stopped voting or they decided to vote in such a way that the percentages of votes recieved by each character is similar to what would be expected if they stopped voting. The second option is completely pointless since they can get the same result from simply not voting. Fate vs Shinku had the highest vote total and considering Shinku was a character they were supporting, if they voted they would defintely have voted in Shinku vs Fate. We know they have the power of at least 600 votes. If you take those out, it becomes a 65-35 match. It would take someone like Yuki or Clannad-AS boosted Kyou to put up a result like that.
Well, Fate might not be what she was last year, but when her fans expect a tough match, her fans rally. She went from defeating Tsukssa by roughly 100 in the first match of double elimination, to defeating Kagami and Yuki by around 300 during the final matches. Shinku by herself is fairly weak, and the RM faction certainly makes her a force to be reckoned with, but they're not the only ones capable of pulling in extra votes. Let's not forget that even though Haruhi was qutie a bit stronger statistically, she still barely defeated Fate. So Fate's capable of pulling in Haruhi's numbers when It's absolutely necessary.
And oh crap, I've already started to rant... Ahwell, moving on.
I don't put much stock in the number of votes a character brings. The total votes in each match changes too much. Even matches on the same day can have significantly different vote totals. While Shinku pulled in more votes, that could just be a result of the boost in votes not because of any particular change in strength. An increase in vote totals means just about all character should be drawing in more votes realtive to matches with lower vote totals.
Yeah, but before Amethyst they where fairly consistent. Amethyst has been a lot more inconsistent...probably because that faction only votes in certain arenas, or rather, votes more in some then they do in others.
I think the percetange of votes a character gets in a match is a far better indicators of changes in strength. While Illya and Tsukasa aren't as strong as Fate, they aren't too much weaker. Going 54% on Illya to 46% on Fate is a fair sized drop in power.
That method works, but there are characters who consistently win despite not receiving massive totals like Haruhi. After Fate lost to Suigintou by roughly 400 votes, you can be sure Fate's Fans considered Shinku a large threat.
For the most part, the people who would join a anti-RM rally are not people would would be voting for Shinku over Fate or generally any RM character. I don't see it as being a large factor. Also other non-RM characters that they had been support also crashed like Kawashima Ami.
Well, to be fair, Ami has underperformed twice before in Amethyst. This time is no different, but if you consider it the fact Ami had no chance of upsetting Kyou, the RM faction probably intended to make her look strong so that she's ready for Shana in Amethyst 9. Actually, all top-tier characters severly raped this match, aside from Mikuru. I won't believe the faction Isn't preparing for a slaughter of the Top tier in Amethyst 9 until I see it for myself.
I think they could have had Shinku hit 2000 if they really wanted to. Shinku was not exactly weak to begin with. Their power is roughly short of swinging a 60-40 match the other way(see Shana vs Kotomi). I pegged Shinku to be around 42-43% against Fate without their involvement. At the very least, they should be able to do better than 46%.
Don't forget, this was a wednesday - If you check previous results, RM is statistically weaker on Wednesdays then they are on Fridays. How could Shinku hit 2K on Fate unless they have reinforcements they've not yet spent. Shinku has never hit 2K. Ever.
Another reason I think they didn't come vote is because the results were quite close to predictions made from my stats from Amethyst 1. Also almost all of the characters that had large increases in strength in my stats underperformed in Amethyst 8 while almost all of the characters that had large decreases in strength in my stats overperformed in Amethyst 8. If they are voting, they are voting almost exactly in line with how strong the characters were back in Amethyst 1 before they arrived.
I agree, the predictions where just about spot on, but I really think they did not pick sides this match, because there where few upsets they could hope for. The one they thought they could pull,(that was actually worth going for) they actually went for - Mikuru vs Fuuko. It's almost as if they sided with the stronger character's this match, because some of these results are even more rape than what would have probably been predicted before Amethyst.
With all that said, the jump in votes does seem odd but even if they are still voting, it wouldn't cause the vote totals to increase. There has to be another reason behind the increase in voter participation and that reason may be a large enough factor to make up for them not voting. Also them not voting in Amethyst 8 doesn't mean much since there's nothing stopping them from voting in Amethyst 9 and later matches.
Assuming they didn't vote, that would mean there would need to be 600 new voters + roughly another 700. Because Wednesdays typically draw in the fewest voters, and the average total of votes on Wednesdays around roughly 3,200. Do you really think ISML could jump 1,300 votes from one wednesday to the next?
Either way, whether I'm looking too far into this or not, I expect they will be there in full force come Amethyst 9.