ISML Fantasy: Sapphire

[Fate]

Fate is evident for winning this period's necklace? Yay.

[minhtam1638]

late arrival:

predictionsShow

Aisaka Taiga (TD): 8-1
Alice Carroll (ARIA): 1-8
Anya Alstreim (CG): 3-6
Asahina Mikuru (SHnY): 9-0
C.C. (CG): 6-3
Chiba Kirino (BB): 1-8
Chii (CH): 1-8
Evangeline McDowell (NG): 3-6
Fate Testarossa (MSLN): 8-1
Fujibayashi Kyō (CL): 8-1
Furude Hanyū (HNKN): 5-4
Furude Rika (HNKN): 3-6
Furukawa Nagisa (CL): 6-3
Hakurei Reimu (TMK): 2-7
Hiiragi Kagami (LS): 8-1
Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS): 5-4
Hinamori Amu (SC): 1-8
Holo (SW): 6-3
Ibuki Fūko (CL): 6-3
Ichinose Kotomi (CL): 7-2
Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN): 4-5
Index Prohibitorum (TAMI): 4-5
Izumi Konata (LS): 7-2
Kamio Misuzu (AIR): 3-6
Kasuga "Ōsaka" Ayumu (AD): 0-9
Katagiri Yūhi (AISS): 1-8
Katsura Hinagiku (HnG): 7-2
Kawashima Ami (TD): 5-4
Kawasumi Mai (KN):
Kawazoe Tamaki (BB): 1-8
Kinomoto Sakura (CCS): 5-4
Kirisame Marisa (TMK): 4-5
Konjiki no Yami (TLR): 5-4
Kōzuki Kallen (CG): 3-6
Kurata Sayuri (KN): 3-6
Kushieda Minori (TD): 5-4
Louise Vallière (ZnT): 4-5
Maria (HnG): 6-3
Minase Nayuki (KN): 3-6
Misaka Mikoto (TAMI): 3-6
Misaka Shiori (KN): 3-6
Mizunashi Akari (ARIA): 0-9
Nagato Yuki (SHnY): 8-1
Nagi (KNG): 1-8
Patchouli Knowledge (TMK): 0-9
Remilia Scarlet (TMK): 0-9
Ryōgi Shiki (KnK): 2-7
Ryūgū Rena (HNKN): 6-3
Saber (FSN): 8-1
Sakagami Tomoyo (CL): 9-0
Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG): 7-2
Sawatari Makoto (KN): 1-8
Shameimaru Aya (TMK): 0-9
Shana (SnS): 9-0
Shinku (RM): 7-2
Suigintō (RM): 8-1
Suiseiseki (RM): 7-2
Sunohara Mei (CL): 4-5
Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY): 9-0
Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN): 8-1
Tōsaka Rin (FSN): 8-1
Tsukimiya Ayu (KN): 4-5
Vita (MSLN): 3-6
Yagami Hayate (MSLN): 3-6

Necklace Prediction:

[kiero]

Ahh, out of time, didn't get to properly fix predictions, so numbers aren't exactly sorted (you can see where I made adjustments)

Necklace: Suigintou, Fate, Tomoyo, Yuki
(pretty much everyone who've won?! weird...)

Suigintou (RM): 9
Suiseiseki (RM): 9
Suzumiya Haruhi (SHnY): 9
Katsura Hinagiku (HnG): 8
Tosaka Rin (FSN): 9
Fate Testarossa (MSLN): 8
Shana (SnS): 8
Holo (OtK): 7
Saber (FSN): 7
Fujibayashi Kyo (CL): 8
Izumi Konata (LS): 8
Sakagami Tomoyo (CL): 9
Aisaka Taiga (TD): 8
Ibuki Fuko (CL): 7
Ichinose Kotomi (CL): 7
Hiiragi Kagami (LS): 8
Shinku (RM): 7
Maria (HnG): 7
Nagato Yuki (SHnY): 7
Ryugu Rena (HNKN): 6
Konjiki no Yami (TLR): 5
Takamachi Nanoha (MSLN): 6
Asahina Mikuru (SHnY): 7
Kawashima Ami (TD): 6
Kinomoto Sakura (CCS): 5
Hiiragi Tsukasa (LS): 5
Kamio Misuzu (AIR): 5
Furude Rika (HNKN): 5
Kushieda Minori (TD): 5
Furude Hanyu (HNKN): 5
Furukawa Nagisa (CL): 5
C.C. (CG): 5
Louise Valliere (ZnT): 4
Illyasviel von Einzbern (FSN): 4
Kurata Sayuri (KN): 4
Tsukimiya Ayu (KN): 4
Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG): 5
Index Prohibitorum (TAMI): 4
Anya Alstreim (CG): 3
Kawazoe Tamaki (BB): 2
Evangeline McDowell (NG): 3
Sunohara Mei (CL): 3
Yagami Hayate (MSLN): 3
Ryogi Shiki (KnK): 3
Kirisame Marisa (TMK): 4
Katagiri Yuhi (AISS): 3
Minase Nayuki (KN): 2
Chiba Kirino (BB): 2
Misaka Shiori (KN): 2
Kawasumi Mai (KN): 2
Chii (CH): 2
Nagi (KNG): 2
Misaka Mikoto (TAMI): 2
Kozuki Kallen (CG): 1
Hakurei Reimu (TMK): 1
Hinamori Amu (SC): 1
Alice Carroll (ARIA): 1
Vita (MSLN): 1
Shameimaru Aya (TMK): 0
Patchouli Knowledge (TMK): 0
Kasuga Osaka Ayumu (AD): 0
Mizunashi Akari (ARIA): 0
Remilia Scarlet (TMK): 0
Sawatari Makoto (KN): 0

[Fate]

Hmm, wonder how much points I lost.

[imbehindyou]

3 matches wrong :

Furude Rika vs Saber
Hakurei Reimu vs Kamio Misuzu
Katagiri Yūhi vs Misaka Shiori

Rika vs Saber was unexpected,
maybe I'm still underestimating Misuzu,
third was a very close match.

[Eater-of-All]

KholdStare, I demand to know how to unhide the columns in your Excel file (Format --> Column --> Unhide doesn't work ).

If they want it to happen, it will happen. Think about it, regardless of SDO they can 'cause upsets for just about every top tier within the span of a period. There is no character strong enough to completely avoid a loss if the RM faction is fully backing another decently strong character. Shana might defeat Suigintou, although I doubt it(Especially since the maidens are extremely powered up on Fridays)...But Suigintou powered up is nothing like Yuki powered up, so they need only knock Yuki down a notch before that vs. Rin, and Shana will be minced meat come Sapphire 9. For Fate, they don't even have to wait for Tomoyo, they've got Konata, Taiga, and Nanoha - Which are all capable of defeating Fate with a 600 vote boost. So if they're still around and want another necklace for the maidens, the chance of it happening is easily over 50%.

Your scenarios are plausible yes, and I admit it's still very unclear how things will turn out. However, I have a hunch that the RM faction may no longer be alone in tactical voting anymore: they have made enemies. Anti-votes will play a part in deciding who is the winner between RM and top-tiers. While these anti-voters are probably not coordinated like the RM faction, I'm sure the boost in the dolls' opponents is enough to be a thorn in the faction's hide.
Also, I believe with Suigintou holding onto Amethyst necklace, the RM faction is now more or less weakened either by complacency or by some of them just not caring anymore. Plus I've never believed in the first place that they're so well-coordinated to be able to see through the SDO game of a whole period, or even half for that matter. It took some of our members a tl;dr post just to explain how the SDO can distribute for the final round, so I honestly doubt the RM faction can take advantage of every movement of the tide. That limitation in communication will also be part of their undoing.

And for your Yuki and Shana thing, that's why I have them both on my necklace list. For Fate, I have her in case they somehow forgot to eradicate her, and because no other have a higher SDO than her should she win Tomoyo.

Suisei can still make a run for the necklace. Her matchups are all winnable.

I gave Suiseisuki a 7-2, for some reason.

This time I made a list too, shiet this sure takes time! Bad enough, after compared with the lists of some pro's here, I don't really intend to post it here. Feels like a little boy wanted to play in the champions league...

Aw, everyone is encouraged to participate in Fantasy, and I think every prediction is a valid one. Don't be ashamed to post something you've worked for so long on!

[Demi.]

Suisei's matches are tough, but I think still winnable.

Nagisa, Mikuru, and Kagami - So Suisei might go 7-2 if RM doesn't back her like in Amethyst.

[chaosprophet]

Plus I've never believed in the first place that they're so well-coordinated to be able to see through the SDO game of a whole period, or even half for that matter. It took some of our members a tl;dr post just to explain how the SDO can distribute for the final round, so I honestly doubt the RM faction can take advantage of every movement of the tide. That limitation in communication will also be part of their undoing.

Well they don't really need to know SDO that well... just try to take out anyone who has a good chance of going 9-0 when they have the chance and they're mostly set for the necklace... that's what they did last period.

[Eater-of-All]

Plus I've never believed in the first place that they're so well-coordinated to be able to see through the SDO game of a whole period, or even half for that matter. It took some of our members a tl;dr post just to explain how the SDO can distribute for the final round, so I honestly doubt the RM faction can take advantage of every movement of the tide. That limitation in communication will also be part of their undoing.

Well they don't really need to know SDO that well... just try to take out anyone who has a good chance of going 9-0 when they have the chance and they're mostly set for the necklace... that's what they did last period.

There's the problem: I don't think they can take out every 9-0 contestent anymore. The faction itself is likely weaker now, and I doubt people are really taking anymore chances. Plus, if a new episode of Haruhi actually makes it, I think the Yuki then can only be beaten by massive SDO tactical voting.

[Juice]

[. . .]

If they want it to happen, it will happen. Think about it, regardless of SDO they can 'cause upsets for just about every top tier within the span of a period. There is no character strong enough to completely avoid a loss if the RM faction is fully backing another decently strong character. Shana might defeat Suigintou, although I doubt it(Especially since the maidens are extremely powered up on Fridays)...But Suigintou powered up is nothing like Yuki powered up, so they need only knock Yuki down a notch before that vs. Rin, and Shana will be minced meat come Sapphire 9. For Fate, they don't even have to wait for Tomoyo, they've got Konata, Taiga, and Nanoha - Which are all capable of defeating Fate with a 600 vote boost. So if they're still around and want another necklace for the maidens, the chance of it happening is easily over 50%.

Your scenarios are plausible yes, and I admit it's still very unclear how things will turn out. However, I have a hunch that the RM faction may no longer be alone in tactical voting anymore: they have made enemies. Anti-votes will play a part in deciding who is the winner between RM and top-tiers. While these anti-voters are probably not coordinated like the RM faction, I'm sure the boost in the dolls' opponents is enough to be a thorn in the faction's hide.
Also, I believe with Suigintou holding onto Amethyst necklace, the RM faction is now more or less weakened either by complacency or by some of them just not caring anymore. Plus I've never believed in the first place that they're so well-coordinated to be able to see through the SDO game of a whole period, or even half for that matter. It took some of our members a tl;dr post just to explain how the SDO can distribute for the final round, so I honestly doubt the RM faction can take advantage of every movement of the tide. That limitation in communication will also be part of their undoing.

And for your Yuki and Shana thing, that's why I have them both on my necklace list. For Fate, I have her in case they somehow forgot to eradicate her, and because no other have a higher SDO than her should she win Tomoyo.


[. . .]

Eater, it really isn't that difficult to do what RM did with SDO distributions. I knew all along how the system could be exploited. Heck, Minty WANTED it exploited. All you need is some logic, a period schedule, and a BUNCH of friends.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Plus I've never believed in the first place that they're so well-coordinated to be able to see through the SDO game of a whole period, or even half for that matter. It took some of our members a tl;dr post just to explain how the SDO can distribute for the final round, so I honestly doubt the RM faction can take advantage of every movement of the tide. That limitation in communication will also be part of their undoing.

Well they don't really need to know SDO that well... just try to take out anyone who has a good chance of going 9-0 when they have the chance and they're mostly set for the necklace... that's what they did last period.

There's the problem: I don't think they can take out every 9-0 contestent anymore. The faction itself is likely weaker now, and I doubt people are really taking anymore chances. Plus, if a new episode of Haruhi actually makes it, I think the Yuki then can only be beaten by massive SDO tactical voting.

Suigintou, Shinku and Suiseseki looked as strong as ever in Sapphire 1. The 9-0 characters aren't that much higher than their nearest competition. A couple hundred votes is enough to change the result and they usually only need to change one.

[Chocola]

First of all, thanks for participating even though we didn't have a rest week. We had as many participants as last period (although some new, less old), which is really a surprise for me. ISML is planning to make Fantasy official next year, and your interests are helping to make that happen.

I'm really tired, so I'm just going to post fantasy scores for now, even though they mean nothing so early on.

Initial Scores:



After Sapphire 1:

[Juice]

oh wow, over 100 start value? I feel like a gymnast in the Olympics. o_O

[Demi.]

Lol at where I started. I'm going to seriously fail unless the tactical vote machine picks up like it did in Amethyst...But it was to be expected, I didn't make logical predictions at all.

[Sakurei]

lol demi, you're pretty if you compare yourself with me xD I've really been off xD well I just predicted like I felt xD

[Fate]

I gained points, cool.

[walyi]

mabye it's a good beginning

[Chocola]

EDIT: Never mind hold on.

Also, it has come to my attention that contestant minhtam1638 has not followed my directions which led to incorrect input into the fantasy script, resulting in lower initial scores than normal. I didn't fix his scores for in the first two scoresheets, so don't pay attention to his +/-.

[Demi.]

wow rape. My eyes went straight to my name and realized I did pretty shitty, and then I saw everyone else...

[Fate]

I don't understand. T_T

minhtam received a huge boost.